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pugsnotdrugs19 · 12-26-2015, 12:13 PM

Good ol' Walter is back on the hate train with the Chiefs for yet another consecutive week. At this point, I almost want him to continue to shit on our rep as we continue to prove all of his nonsense wrong. Read below as this week Walter suggests that because we get turnovers 'handed to us', we will beat the Browns by a score of 19-13.....

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I don't want to hear anything about Alex Smith playing well because Andy Reid could've utilized the Bobby Boucher offense the past few weeks and had success with it. The Chiefs have battled three teams that either couldn't score or gave the game away with turnovers in as many weeks. The Raiders were driving to go up nine or 13 before Derek Carr fired a barrage of pick-sixes; the Chargers posted just three points, though they dropped a ball that would've sent the game to overtime; and Baltimore handed Kansas City four gift touchdowns on penalties or turnovers.

Smith dinked and dunked to his heart's desire last week, coming away from the game with just one solid drive despite battling a horrible pass defense. The Browns aren't any better in that regard, as Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett roasted them this past Sunday, but Smith won't exactly attack Cleveland downfield like Russell Wilson did.

The Browns don't stop the run well either, however, so Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware figure to trample them, at least on paper. Ware is expected to return, so West's poor fantasy owners will have to turn elsewhere. Regardless, the two should combine to post a massive yardage amount, but only if guard Jeff Allen suits up. Allen has been missing recently, and while many don't know who he is, he's been Kansas City's top blocker. Also, Travis Kelce is considered questionable, so his absence would be huge.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Johnny Manziel's competence has been quite the surprise. Ever since returning to the field following his drunken escapades, Manziel has been very effective. He beat the 49ers, which wasn't a huge deal, but he was able to keep his team around versus the Seahawks and their tough defense, which was impressive.

If Manziel was able to perform well at Seattle, why can't he do so at Kansas City? Justin Houston is still out, so the opportunity will be there for Manziel. He'll hook up with Gary Barnidge quite often, as the blossoming tight end has proven to be unstoppable.

Running the ball could be problematic, however. The last time the Chiefs surrendered 100-plus yards on the ground was back in Week 7, and the Browns don't exactly have the talented backs to overcome this.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. The Chiefs haven't done crap in the past four weeks to warrant such a line. They defeated the Ravens by 20, but Baltimore handed them that game on a silver platter with a personal foul penalty, a Buck Allen strip-six, a fake punt from its own 17-yard line and a pick-six when the receiver fell down. The Chargers nearly sent their game to overtime. The Raiders self-destructed when it appeared as though they were going to take control of the contest. In fact, the last convincing victory Kansas City had was back in Week 12 when they beat the Bills, 30-22, but that's looking less and less impressive, as Buffalo has suffered consecutive defeats to NFC East teams since.

Moving forward, the Chiefs are expected to win against a team that has nothing to lose, so this has "choke job" written all over it. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Kansas City lost this one straight up. The Browns, who have been way more competitive lately, should at least cover against a team that is suddenly banged up.

I'm listing this as a two-unit wager for now. I don't want to go crazy with a 3-11 squad, but I'll be pretty surprised if the Chiefs win in a blowout.

WEDNESDAY NOTES: A commenter below pointed out that I've gotten a bunch of Kansas City picks wrong. I think I've been on the right side of the past three Chiefs selections, but bad luck allowed the other teams to cover. I'm pretty confident in this selection, and I was thinking about moving this up to three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
A ton of money on the host.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 82% (2,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .
Opening Line: Chiefs -13.
Opening Total: 44.
Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 19, Browns 13
Browns +12.5 (2 Units)
Under 43 (0 Units)

12-26-2015, 12:13 PM	Topic Starter
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS pugsnotdrugs19's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2013	WalterFootball is at it again with the Chiefs Good ol' Walter is back on the hate train with the Chiefs for yet another consecutive week. At this point, I almost want him to continue to shit on our rep as we continue to prove all of his nonsense wrong. Read below as this week Walter suggests that because we get turnovers 'handed to us', we will beat the Browns by a score of 19-13..... KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I don't want to hear anything about Alex Smith playing well because Andy Reid could've utilized the Bobby Boucher offense the past few weeks and had success with it. The Chiefs have battled three teams that either couldn't score or gave the game away with turnovers in as many weeks. The Raiders were driving to go up nine or 13 before Derek Carr fired a barrage of pick-sixes; the Chargers posted just three points, though they dropped a ball that would've sent the game to overtime; and Baltimore handed Kansas City four gift touchdowns on penalties or turnovers. Smith dinked and dunked to his heart's desire last week, coming away from the game with just one solid drive despite battling a horrible pass defense. The Browns aren't any better in that regard, as Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett roasted them this past Sunday, but Smith won't exactly attack Cleveland downfield like Russell Wilson did. The Browns don't stop the run well either, however, so Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware figure to trample them, at least on paper. Ware is expected to return, so West's poor fantasy owners will have to turn elsewhere. Regardless, the two should combine to post a massive yardage amount, but only if guard Jeff Allen suits up. Allen has been missing recently, and while many don't know who he is, he's been Kansas City's top blocker. Also, Travis Kelce is considered questionable, so his absence would be huge. CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Johnny Manziel's competence has been quite the surprise. Ever since returning to the field following his drunken escapades, Manziel has been very effective. He beat the 49ers, which wasn't a huge deal, but he was able to keep his team around versus the Seahawks and their tough defense, which was impressive. If Manziel was able to perform well at Seattle, why can't he do so at Kansas City? Justin Houston is still out, so the opportunity will be there for Manziel. He'll hook up with Gary Barnidge quite often, as the blossoming tight end has proven to be unstoppable. Running the ball could be problematic, however. The last time the Chiefs surrendered 100-plus yards on the ground was back in Week 7, and the Browns don't exactly have the talented backs to overcome this. RECAP: This spread is way too high. The Chiefs haven't done crap in the past four weeks to warrant such a line. They defeated the Ravens by 20, but Baltimore handed them that game on a silver platter with a personal foul penalty, a Buck Allen strip-six, a fake punt from its own 17-yard line and a pick-six when the receiver fell down. The Chargers nearly sent their game to overtime. The Raiders self-destructed when it appeared as though they were going to take control of the contest. In fact, the last convincing victory Kansas City had was back in Week 12 when they beat the Bills, 30-22, but that's looking less and less impressive, as Buffalo has suffered consecutive defeats to NFC East teams since. Moving forward, the Chiefs are expected to win against a team that has nothing to lose, so this has "choke job" written all over it. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Kansas City lost this one straight up. The Browns, who have been way more competitive lately, should at least cover against a team that is suddenly banged up. I'm listing this as a two-unit wager for now. I don't want to go crazy with a 3-11 squad, but I'll be pretty surprised if the Chiefs win in a blowout. WEDNESDAY NOTES: A commenter below pointed out that I've gotten a bunch of Kansas City picks wrong. I think I've been on the right side of the past three Chiefs selections, but bad luck allowed the other teams to cover. I'm pretty confident in this selection, and I was thinking about moving this up to three units. The Psychology. Edge: None. No edge found. The Vegas. Edge: Browns. A ton of money on the host. Percentage of money on Kansas City: 82% (2,000 bets) The Trends. Edge: . Opening Line: Chiefs -13. Opening Total: 44. Weather: . Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 19, Browns 13 Browns +12.5 (2 Units) Under 43 (0 Units)
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